As the world awaited a possible deal between the US and Iran last week, President Donald Trump launched a fresh angle — that any deal would have to be contingent on a host of regional powers joining the Abraham Accords, meaning normalization with Israel.
His social media post said: “It should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords. Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!).” In a press conference Trump went further, saying: “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign.”
This was certainly ambitious. Was this really a last-minute deal-breaker or just an attempt to use the moment, that desperate desire for a deal to achieve a long-desired goal? The US leader made clear that this should start with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Trump has been pressing countries such as the Kingdom to do this throughout this administration, but the Saudi position has remained firm that this can happen only if there is a clear pathway to a Palestinian state.
Later in the post was a quasi get-out clause that few noticed: “It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted.”
Sampling the initial reactions, there has been no headlong rush to sign up but largely a bunch of awkward diplomatic silences indicating this proposal was dead on arrival.
The Saudi position has remained firm
Chris Doyle
The optimal outcome is that the idea is shelved until a more appropriate time. Normalization is not for now and an Iran deal should not be contingent on this. It would cause a disastrous delay. It is an arsonist’s option, as it would destroy the US and Israeli economies as well.
Normalization is not a business transaction. It must be the product and end point of a successful peace process that resolved outstanding grievances. For regional powers, Israel has to make steps toward peace, including a pathway to a Palestinian state. It is also not just Iran who insists that Israel ends its occupation of Syrian, Lebanese, and Palestinian territory.
The US is trying to force a situation where Israel picks up all the goodies at zero cost. This is typical of all the failed US-led peace efforts of the past, where all the obligations are on other parties, not Israel, and the US acts as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lead negotiator.
The reality is that Trump knows that Netanyahu is enraged at the proposed deal with Iran. Normalization deals for Trump would be the sweetener to soothe the Israeli leader’s anger.
It is also a misreading of the regional mood, once again. Israel and the US started this war, a conflict that Netanyahu cajoled Trump into launching. Nearly every regional state opposed this war. Many worked to mediate and facilitate a deal.
The Abraham Accords survived, in some cases thrived, because it was limited in scope to those states who for their own reasons genuinely wanted to go down this path.
Normalization is not a business transaction
Chris Doyle
Many in the Trump administration view Gaza as being solved and out of the way in the embrace of Trump’s Board of Peace. Yet the reality is that the Israeli genocide in Gaza continues albeit at a more sedate pace. They have little understanding of the public outrage in these countries they expect to normalize with Israel, and even if they do, still expect leaders to ignore this.
These leaders cannot ignore Israeli atrocities against Palestinians, nor should they be pressured to do so. It is an inversion of what should be happening. It is the criminal perpetrator that has to change its conduct, not the victim and victim’s friends who have to embrace the criminal. It is expecting the burgled to embrace the burglar even as the burglary continues; the abused to hug the abuser
Genuine security for Israel does not come about through bullying neighbors to sign deals. Conjuring brand names structures like the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace is no substance for the hard diplomatic graft and courage to manufacture a climate of peace. There are no easy shortcuts.
One day genuine and true normalization may be possible. Who would not dream of a Middle East at peace with itself, working together and cooperating in a structure akin to the EU? Yet the crimes must stop first, the occupations must end. Those responsible must be held to account. All parties must be willing to treat others with respect and humanity. At the moment, this feels galaxies away.
BY: Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect The Times Union‘ point of view
