In 2023, Asia was identified as the most disaster-impacted region, as detailed in the World Meteorological Report 2024. The global annual mean temperature rose to 1.45 °C above pre-industrial levels, with Asia experiencing a 1.87 °C increase compared to the 1961-1990 average.
This warming has profoundly affected glacier dynamics, which play a crucial role in regional water
cycles and hazard management, especially in relation to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF).The High-Mountain region, covering about 100,000 km2, has experienced significant glacier retreat and mass loss over the last 40 years. This retreat poses environmental and economic challenges, as glaciers are vital sources of water for agriculture and hydroelectricity. With the global population projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, the World Economic Forum predicts a 70% increase in food production is necessary. Therefore, the resilience of glacier ecosystems is
integral to global food security and ecological stability.
In 2023, EM-DAT recorded approximately 399 natural disasters worldwide, resulting in 86,473 fatalities and impacting around 93.1 million people, with economic losses amounting to USD 202billion. Asia alone experienced 169 of these disasters, with 79 being hydrometeorological hazards.
Floods and storms accounted for nearly 80% of these events. A notable example is the 2022 floods in Pakistan, among the deadliest and costliest in the country’s history, claiming over 1,739 lives and causing about USD 15 billion in damages. In the same vein, tropical storm Doksuri cost China around USD 25 billion in 2023. These events highlight the need for effective climate resilience strategies and the political consequences for developing countries, such as Pakistan’s call for compensation from higher-emitting nations, citing mismanagement and corruption as exacerbating factors.
The lesson is clear: addressing the significant challenges of glacier resource management requires the integration of various solutions. Time is of the essence to bolster resilience in Asia, given the record warm years ranging from Japan to Kazakhstan. According to the WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2023, only half of the world’s countries are covered by an early warning system.
Meanwhile, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) reports that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region has seen a 65% acceleration in glacier mass loss. Our current consumption patterns are unsustainable and pose severe risks to Earth’s systems and the ecological processes vital for human well-being and biodiversity. We must shift away from economic models heavily reliant on resource extraction.
Strategic Directions for Enhancing Glacier Resilience A two-pronged approach is recommended as a starting point for moving towards solutions. This includes firstly looking at improving awareness and integrating this into policymaking, and secondly, there is a need to improve data collection. The impact is intricately tied to how we extract and utilize material resources. If we fail to optimize resource use, we risk undermining our ability to overcome future challenges.
Recalibrating Policy Frameworks through the Green Nexus Most of Asia’s elite landowners, senior bureaucrats, and seasoned politicians lack awareness of the environmental threats posed by glacier retreat. This disconnect significantly hampers effective climate action and policy implementation. To overcome these challenges, a recalibration of the
policy framework is necessary. This involves adopting a bottom-up, inclusive approach that:
- Promotes rural economic development to engage communities directly affected by climate
change. - Leverages multi-sectoral collaboration to integrate diverse expertise and resources in
tackling glacier resilience. - Focuses on creating actionable plans based on local data and case studies, moving away
from victimhood narratives towards empowerment and proactive measures.
Additionally, integrating regional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) into climate action frameworks is crucial. These commitments, part of the global Paris Agreement, aim to enhance climate resilience through specific, actionable goals. For example, nexus between countries like Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Afghanistan which are highly dependent on shared natural resources, this framework helps them in advancing clean energy usage, improving transmission efficiency, and establishing climate-resilient water treaties, out migrations and climate mitigation.
Platforms like the Central Asian Flood Early Warning System (CAFEWS) provide a vital framework for data exchange and weather forecasting to better manage transboundary risks.
CAFEWS covers Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. There exist also projects like GLOFCA, which are specifically designed to strengthen resilience against glacier melting and reduce societal risks associated with GLOFs. GLOFCA covers vulnerable communities across several mountain ranges and benefits nearly 90,000 people. The mountain ranges cover in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Enhancing Data Resilience with Advanced Weather Forecasting The region faces a significant data drought, particularly in weather forecasting, which is crucial for preparing for and mitigating climate impacts. The development and deployment of more sophisticated forecasting models can provide Central Asian countries with advance warnings, becoming increasingly critical as climate change progresses. Key advancements include:- Investment in high-resolution models, such as ECMWF’s, which uses a grid of 9 km2
boxes, down from 16 km2 in 2016, and splits the atmosphere into over 100 layers, allowing
for a more detailed and accurate representation of real-world weather patterns. - The integration of AI and digital technologies to enhance the precision and efficiency of
weather models. For example, Meteomatics uses advanced data crunching and
downscaling techniques tailored to local topography, enhancing the accuracy of forecasts
in specific regions.
Additionally, the disparity in weather station distribution between developed and developing nations needs to be addressed. Increasing the number of local weather stations in underdeveloped regions can greatly improve the understanding of local climate changes and enhance resilience by providing timely and relevant data.
International Collaboration and Support Implementing these advanced forecasting models and policy changes requires not only national commitment but also international support and collaboration. Developed countries can play a pivotal role by sharing technology, expertise, and financial resources to help less-developed nations enhance their meteorological services and implement effective climate resilience strategies.
To conclude, the evidence of climate change’s impact on glaciers is irrefutable, and the lack of proactive measures and awareness exacerbates these issues. To ensure the mainstreaming of glacier resilience issues, it is vital to take climate dialogue initiatives in Asia to the next level. High-level regional dialogues, involving ministers and technocrats from all affected countries, should aim to issue declarations that advance recommendations for enhancing multi-hazard early warning systems. These systems need to encompass improved observation and forecasting, enhanced risk knowledge and management, and more effective preparedness, response, and communication strategies. Only through such comprehensive and coordinated efforts can we hope to optimize resource use and ensure the long-term resilience of glacier-dependent regions.
BY: Writer Talha Tufail Bhatti and Sandaleen Qaiser works as Researchers at the Climate Change Desk, Institute of
Regional Studies, Islamabad.
