Iran war could be over soon, but oil disruption would trigger harsher US strikes

• IRGC hits back at US president, insisting it will be one to determine when war ends; while disappointed with Mojtaba Khamenei, Trump says he prefers someone from within Iran to take over

US President Donald Trump said Monday that the war against Iran could be short-lived, but he left open the possibility of an escalation in fighting if global oil supplies are disrupted by the Islamic Republic under its newly chosen, hard-line supreme leader.

Oil prices briefly shot to their highest level since 2022, a day after Iran selected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Iran’s supreme leader. Investors saw it as a signal that Iran was digging in 10 days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.

But prices later fell and US stocks rose on hopes that the war with Iran may not last much longer.

“It’s going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they’ll be hit even harder,” Trump told a news conference in Florida, after telling lawmakers that the campaign would be a “short-term excursion” from what he said have been gradually improving economic numbers.

Pressed whether “soon” means in a week, Trump responded, “No, but I think soon.”

Hours later, Trump posted on social media: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”

During the press conference, Trump threatened to target certain electricity production sites in Iran if Tehran disrupts global oil supply.

“We’ve left some of the most important targets for later, in case we need to do it,” Trump said. “If we hit [those targets], it’s going to take many years for them to be rebuilt. [The targets have] to do with electricity production and many other things. We’re not looking to do that if we don’t have to.”

“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. If Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much harder level. I will take out those targets… that I mentioned just before.”

In an apparent response to Trump’s remarks, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said, “Iran will determine when the war ends.”

Tehran will not allow “one liter of oil” to be exported from the region if US and Israeli attacks continue, the IRGC spokesperson warned.

The war has choked off major supplies of oil and gas to world markets and sent fuel prices rising across the US. The fighting has also led foreigners to flee from business hubs and prompted millions to seek shelter as bombs hit military bases, government buildings, oil and water installations, hotels and at least one school.

Trump also had a call on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and other issues. Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said Putin “voiced a few ideas regarding a quick political and diplomatic settlement” of the conflict following his conversations with Gulf leaders and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Khamenei, a secretive 56-year-old cleric, is only the third supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. He has close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has been firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states since his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled since 1989, was killed during the war’s opening salvo.

Thousands poured into a central square in the capital, Tehran, and other locations in a show of allegiance to the new supreme leader, waving flags and shouting phrases like “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

Trump likes idea of another ‘internal’ candidate to lead Iran

Trump said Monday the United States was nearing its goal to eliminate Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile and its ability to produce and launch them. The administration has offered shifting rationales and timelines since the start of the conflict.

He also talked about “building a new country,” a comment that seemed to suggest the US might be engaged in the building of a new Iran.

The younger Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since the war started, was long considered a potential successor — even before the killing of his 86-year-old father.

Trump told reporters that he was “disappointed” that Mojtaba Khamenei was picked and that he liked “the idea” of a leader drawn from an “internal” group of candidates, saying that worked well with Venezuela.

Trump in January pledged to assist Iranian protesters who were gunned down en masse for demonstrating against the regime.

He was pressed on Monday on whether he’d be betraying them by making a deal with a new leader of the same regime.

“Will I help them? I’d like to if they can behave, but they’ve been very menacing,” Trump said before praising the Iranian people. “I’d love to help them, but they have to be in a system that allows them to be helped, and right now they’re in a system that only allows failure.”

Asked what more he wants to see before ending the war, Trump responded that Iran must have leaders who don’t try to develop a nuclear weapon.

The younger Khamenei is seen as even less compromising than his late father. As supreme leader, he has the final say on all major policies, including Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.

Though Iran’s key nuclear sites are in tatters after the US bombed them during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, it still has highly enriched uranium that’s a technical step away from weapons-grade levels. Khamenei could choose to do what his father never did — build a nuclear bomb.

Trump told reporters the war with Iran started because that country was working on a new site for developing material for nuclear weapons to replace one bombed last year by the US.

Israel has already described Khamenei as a potential target. Trump said Monday it “would be inappropriate” to say whether he would be targeted.

US market seesaws over uncertainty of war

The US stock market careened through a manic Monday, going from a steep early loss to a solid gain as worries turned into hope that the war with Iran may not last that long. Oil prices whipped from nearly $120 per barrel, the highest since 2022, back toward $90.

Iran’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have all but stopped tankers from using the shipping lane through which a fifth of the world’s oil is carried, and Iranian drones and missiles have targeted oil and gas infrastructure in major producers. Attacks on merchant ships near the strait have killed at least seven mariners, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Kamal Kharazi, foreign policy adviser to the office of the supreme leader, told CNN on Monday that Iran is prepared for a long war. He said he sees no “room for diplomacy anymore” unless economic pressure prompts other countries to intervene and stop the “aggression of Americans and Israelis against Iran.”

Trump aides said urging him to articulate war exit plan

Some Trump’s advisers are privately urging him to publicly articulate an exit plan from the Iran war, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

The aides want him to make the case that the military has largely achieved its objectives for the war, WSJ said.

While US officials have at times offered varying lists for the war’s aims, they have generally been the destruction of Iran’s missile program, the destruction of its navy, a halt to Iran’s support for regional proxies and the blocking of Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The Journal report was forcefully denied by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“This story is full of crap from anonymous sources who, I can guarantee, are not in the room with President Trump. The president’s top aides are focused 24/7 on ensuring Operation Epic Fury continues to be a tremendous success, and the end of these operations will ultimately be determined by the commander in chief,” Leavitt said.

WSJ said some of Trump’s aides have warned him that a drawn-out war will eat into his support, even if Republicans largely support the strikes against Iran for now.

The concerned advisers have fielded calls from Republicans who have expressed concern about what the war will mean for the upcoming midterm elections, the Journal said.

Accordingly, the aides determined that they needed a more aggressive public messaging plan to sell the war amid rising gas prices, WSJ said.

“The vast majority of Americans support ending the threat posed by the Iranian regime and support killing terrorists, and that’s what President Trump is going to accomplish,” Leavitt said in response to the story.

Polling has shown that a slight majority of Americans oppose the war, with responses largely falling along party lines.

Despite the concern from some of his advisers, administration officials told the Journal that the war was unlikely to end so long as Iran continued attacking regional countries and as long as Israel wanted to continue striking targets in Iran.

Trump won’t stop fighting until he can claim a satisfactory victory, especially when the US has a military advantage, a senior administration official told WSJ.

The paper cited unnamed people familiar with Trump’s thinking as saying that the president is surprised that Iran hasn’t capitulated amid the unrelenting US and Israeli strikes.

Asked during his press conference on Monday whether he and US Vice President JD Vance see eye-to-eye regarding the war, Trump admitted that Vance “philosophically… was maybe less enthusiastic.

“But he was quite enthusiastic, [and] I felt it was something we had to do,” Trump clarified.

BY: The Times Union – Agencies