France’s army chief, Gen. Fabien Mandon, last week pushed the country of 246 cheeses, as Charles de Gaulle once described it, into an explosive situation. Mandon told the nation’s mayors: “If our country wavers because it is not ready to lose its children … or to suffer economically because the priority has to be military production, then we are indeed at risk.” He used these declarations to highlight the potential for a military confrontation with Russia. The backlash was immediate and criticism from political figures across the aisle qualified it as reckless warmongering.
Mandon explained that he intended to prepare the country, noting that the military is made up of young adults who knowingly accept risks. He also pointed out that many European neighbors are bringing back national service, suggesting France might follow suit. The government tried to defuse the situation by stating that French children will not be sent to die in Ukraine. And President Emmanuel Macron came to the defense of the army’s chief of staff by stating that his comments were taken out of context. He also emphasized the need to recognize geopolitical risks.
The fragility of the situation has led to unbelievable rumors in a country like France. Some posts claimed that nine generals met in Fontainebleau on Nov. 20. They are said to have sharply criticized Mandon. Messages relayed by several media outlets describe the situation as the most “serious political-military crisis since the Algerian War” and that an internal war is underway against the army chief.
Let’s pause for a moment and consider what was said and how people have reacted. Are the remarks warmongering? Was Mandon wrong? The blunt answer to both these questions is “no.” Not because of current geopolitical threats, but because this is the essence of a nation and its protection.
The West has lived through 80 years of stability and peace and has forgotten how they were achieved: through the sacrifice of the children of these nations. Time is taking away the final Second World War veterans and, with them, the memory of terrible disasters and more than 70 million deaths. We have also forgotten the horrors of the concentration camps and the sheer brutality of war.
So, Mandon’s declaration was the truth and a nation’s readiness and deterrence are key to protecting it. Europe’s stability was not built easily and, following the Second World War, it took great men such as De Gaulle to build France’s deterrence through military innovation and its own nuclear shield. In a great sense, France punched above its weight and was able to benefit from a great power asymmetry during the Cold War.
Moreover, European reconstruction brought a new zone of collaboration and stability. Suffice to say that France and Germany, historical enemies, became friends and partners. This would never have happened if it were not for the support of the US.
Is Europe ready to defend itself today? The blunt answer is no: both in terms of troop numbers and military-industrial capacity. Despite NATO members recently agreeing to increase their defense spending, it will take time to fill the gap. And Europe’s fragmented industrial supply chain might push for national initiatives rather than mutualized ones that would be more efficient. It is also about sovereignty.
Moreover, as the reaction to Mandon’s test balloon showed, public opinion is not ready to support troops going to war. And this misalignment is probably what worries the European military leadership the most.
But we also need to ask: Is Russia a real military threat to Europe today? Could a new balance of power and mutual deterrence help stabilize the situation without any escalation? Here, it is no longer the role of the military to decide — it is in the hands of the politicians. I could add that, unfortunately, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, some politicians have called for the defeat of Russia, beyond saving Kyiv, and this has not fallen on deaf ears in Moscow.
The hard truth is that Europe is far from being ready — and this gap might be worrying.
But is a full-blown war with Russia inevitable? Could Europe find a balance? Today, European politicians are pushing back against the US plan to end the Ukraine war and I do not understand why. It should be backed by France and the rest of Europe. Donald Trump is offering a real way out. We should also remember that Moscow contributed heavily to the defeat of Nazism, suffering more than 20 million deaths.
Of course, the agreement proposed by Trump reflects the balance of power on the ground and geopolitically. The indignation from politicians about potential territory loss is the military form of virtue signaling. Losses and victories have built nations but never defined the resilient. So, the US peace plan, if implemented — and I hope it is — does not necessarily mean an open door for future wars.
What is important is what Europe does afterward. If it stays idle and looks to the sky, then of course it might invite more aggression. But if it builds its readiness and shows its resilience, then a new page could be opened with Moscow, as long as there is full compliance with the agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality. Hence, with the US plan, a new era of collaboration might even be found.
We need to recognize that the opposition to Moscow does not start at Europe’s Eastern border, but at the West’s political borders. It is first and foremost a divide between the left and the right. And this is also the risk, as the military sees: the potential for a divided nation in the face of a military confrontation is the textbook method for ensuring defeat. And this is why pragmatism and hard work need to be the priority.
Europe needs to build up its military deterrence and remember the sacrifices of its elders so that the people and their armies stand as one. Mandon was right to remind everyone of this. It is not the way to war but the way to maintain peace. It should be followed by concrete actions that allow Europe to develop a strong containment policy, if needed. But I believe that, before the population, it is the politicians who should be reminded of the horrors of war — and that it is much more than a photo opportunity on a midnight train.
BY: Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect The Times Union‘ point of view
